Apple switchers growing

OSNews links to an Apple Insider article that can’t have been well thought through: Over 1 Million Windows to Mac Converts So Far in 2005?. “The momentum generated by Apple’s iPod digital music players and related products continues to translate into new Macintosh sales according to one Wall Street analyst who estimates that over one million Windows users have purchased a Mac in the first three quarters of 2005.”

Great news! I’m a switcher, though in 2004. But, digging into the article,

“If we assume that all of the growth in Mac shipments during the past three quarters resulted from Windows users purchasing a Mac, then purchases by Windows users exceeded one million,” the analyst said.

Well, that’s silly. No current Mac user bought a new Mac in the past three quarters? If so, Apple is doomed. Apple users often keep their machines running for years, as they don’t have the rapid decline-to-obsolesence of WinTel boxes, but I’d guesstimate a 4-year-lifecycle on average and so a rough estimate of 20% of sales to current Apple users still yields a respectable 800,000 switchers this year and projects around a million by the end of the calendar year. There are lies, damned lies and statistics. Let’s leave the exaggeration to the other guys.

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